The Dividend Value Calculator is intended to promote awareness of the importance of dividends in stock valuations.
The model is still in its beta version and we welcome suggestions as to how it can be improved.
Example (1)
An Australian investor may have a stock price of 2000 cents; a risk-free rate of 6% and a top personal tax rate of 48%.
The company may have a tax rate of 30% and expect to pay 80 cents in fully-franked (100%) dividends which are expected to grow at an average rate of 10% over the next 15 years.
The stock is projected to be eventually sold at a conservative dividend yield of 5% (compared to the current 4%).
Half of capital gains (50%) are taxed at the top personal rate of 48%.
The resultant present value (at the risk-free rate) is 4919 cents, providing a 146% margin of safety.
Example (2)
If the same investor in (1) has a top personal tax rate (and capital gains rate) of 10%,
the margin of safety is very similar at 147%.
The lower tax rate has two effects that tend to offset each other:
after-tax cash flows, from dividends and the end sale, are higher because of the lower tax rate; but
their present values tend to be lower because of the higher after-tax discount rate (risk-free rate).